ICC WTC 2025 Final All 9 Teams Best Qualification Scenario

Team India in line for their third appearance in our qualification scenario explanation for all 9 teams for ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final. 

The third edition of the ICC World Test Championship, the WTC 2023-2025 cycle is entering the business phase with 4-5 teams nicely poised for an attempt to qualify for the final of the tournament. The WTC as we know is a mega event that is played over a period of 2 years in a bid to promote and preserve the longest format of the game, the Test Cricket. While New Zealand were crowned as the champions in the 1st edition, Australia were the champions in 2nd edition with India being the Runner-up on both occasions. 

The current edition of the tournament is already entering an exciting business phase. Team India are currently ranked number 1 with a PCT of 71.67%. Australia are not far behind with a PCT of 62.5%. The third and fourth-ranked teams, Sri Lanka and New Zealand are currently competing against each other in a 2-match Test series in Sri Lanka, but are far off in the points table with a PCT of 50 and 42.85% respectively.

While the top 4 teams along with South Africa are still nicely poised for a birth in the final of the WTC 2023-2025 championship, only two will actually play the final at Lords’s in June 2025. But which teams have the best probability to qualify for the final? Well, let’s analyze the fixtures of the top 5 teams, and find out which two teams are best placed in our qualification scenario explanation for ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-2025. 

World Test Championship (WTC) Final 2025 Qualification Scenario Explained

#5: New Zealand

Mat: 7 // Win: 3 // Draw: 0 // Loss: 4 // Points: 36 // PCT: 42.85%

Pending Fixtures: Eng (H*3), Ind (A*3) & SL (A*1)

Starting with New Zealand, they are currently fourth in the points table with a PCT of 42.85%. They are facing Sri Lanka currently, and have lost the first Test match even as the Rachin Ravindra led a brilliant fightback. While New Zealand lost the first Test match, expect them to make a comeback in the second Test match. Their toughest battle will be the 3 Test matches against India, and going past them will be extremely difficult. However, 3 matches against England at home can be a breather for them. 

Seeing New Zealand’s fixtures, they have 7 matches left with 3 being at home. For New Zealand to be above 60% PCT, they will have to win at least one Test match vs Sri Lanka and India, and then whitewash England at home. If New Zealand more than 3 matches from here, it looks very unlikely they will qualify for the ICC WTC 2025 final as they can then get to a max of 57% PCT, which may not be enough.   

#4: Sri Lanka

Mat: 8 // Win: 4 // Draw: 0 // Loss: 4 // Points: 48 // PCT: 50.00%

Pending Fixtures: Aus (H*2), NZ (H*1), SA (A*2)

We then move on to the third-ranked team on the list, Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka are currently number 3 in the points table with 4 wins from 8 games, and a PCT of 50.00%. The team is currently playing New Zealand at home, and have registered an inspirational win over Sri Lanka in the first Test match. But the road ahead is not good for Sri Lanka. They will face New Zealand in the second Test match at home, then Australia also at home for another two Test matches, and then South Africa away from home for two Test matches.

While the first match against New Zealand has gone in the favor of Sri Lanka, New Zealand may come back hard in the second Test match, and Australia will give them a tough fight at home. Similarly, winning against South Africa away from home will be extremely difficult. If they win all matches, the max they will get to is a PCT of 69.2%. That should be enough for them to qualify. If they lose one, that should also be good enough for them to qualify. If SL lose two Tests, that should be a pack-up for them.   

#3: South Africa

Mat: 6 // Win: 2 // Draw: 1 // Loss: 3 // Points: 28 // PCT: 38.89%

Fixtures: Pak (H*2), SL (H*2) & Ban (A*2)

Talking about South Africa, they were best-placed for a place in the WTC final for this cycle. But they have messed up completely after losing to New Zealand 0-2. They have a PCT of 38.89% currently, and have 6 more matches to go. Assuming they win all 6, the max they will get to is a PCT of 69.4%. That may be enough for them to qualify, but the situation looks bleak seeing their fixtures. If SA lose one match from here, their PCT% comes down to 61.1% This will be a borderline, and then South Africa would want a one-sided result between India and Australia for them to progress through. If SA lose two matches, that should be a pack up for them as their PCT then drops to 52.8%. 

#2: Australia

Mat: 12 // Win: 8 // Draw: 1 // Loss: 3 // Points: 90 // PCT: 62.5%

Pending Fixtures: Ind (H*5) & SL (A*2)

Talking about Australia, they look best to qualify for their successive final alongside India. They are currently second with a PCT of 62.5%. They now have two away fixtures vs Sri Lanka, and five home fixtures vs India. The fixtures aren’t the most difficult ones, and Australia can afford to lose a maximum of 3 matches from the pending 7 matches. If they lose 3, their PCT drops to 60.53%, which may just be enough for them qualify, unless South Africa lose only 1 match. If Australia lose only two matches, their PCT becomes 65.79%, and unless South Africa win all, they are safe to proceed. But if Australia lose 4 matches, their PCT drops to 55.3%, and in this case, South Africa, their challenger will have to lose 2 matches at the least.  

#1: Team India

Mat: 10 // Win: 7 // Draw: 1 // Loss: 2 // Points: 86 // PCT: 71.67%

Pending Fixtures: NZ (H*3), Ban (H*1) & Aus (A*5)

Finally, talking about India, they are well-placed just like Australia to enter the final of the WTC 2023-2025 cycle. They are currently number 1 with a solid PCT of 71.67%. They have another match against Bangladesh, and that should take their PCT to 74.2%. Post that India have 8 matches, and all they have to do is win at least 5 out of those 8 matches. That should take their PCT to 69.3%, and that should be enough for them to qualify. If India lose 4 matches from here, their PCT becomes 64.04%, and in that case, India will have to hope South Africa lose just 1 match from here. If India lose 5 matches, their PCT becomes 58.8%, and in that case, South Africa will have to lose 2 matches for India to sail through.   

Conclusion: 

Concluding the analysis, it seems we are in for another India vs Australia final, but this time at Lord’s. South Africa seems to be the only challenger that can come in between India and Australia. But for South Africa to push through, they will have to hope the India vs Australia series has a result with Australia winning will be better for them. But needless to say, the only way South Africa remain a challenger is if they win at least 5 of their remaining 6 matches.  

Thanks for reading! What’s your view on the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final qualification scenario? Please email your thoughts to business@cricalytics.com.

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Adesh Kothari

Adesh Kothari is the founder of AK4Tsay1 Cricalytics with over 20 years of experience following Cricket.

Cricket to him is like what Football is to Lionel Messi, Singing is to Lata Mangeshkar, Dancing is to Michael Jackson, and Acting is to Clint Eastwood.

Besides his effervescent love for Cricket, Adesh is an MBA by qualification.